Kalshi’s Sudden Ban in India Sparks Questions About Global Regulatory Crackdown

So, Kalshi just threw a curveball into the prediction market game by slapping India onto its banned list—making it the 55th jurisdiction to get the cold shoulder . What’s behind this latest crackdown? Well, it’s not just a random decision; India’s regulators waved a big red flag to VPN providers about blocking access to these “illegal” betting platforms. Honestly, it makes you wonder: with the clampdown spreading from Spain to Indonesia, and now India, are prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket gambling with fire by offering those political and sports betting contracts? The stakes are high, with lawmakers and states calling foul on insider trading and unlicensed gambling charges. Is this the beginning of the end for this booming $3-plus billion weekly trade? Or just a wild inning in an ever-evolving regulatory ballgame? Buckle up—things are heating up. LEARN MORE.

Prediction market Kalshi has added India to its list of restricted jurisdictions, according to a members’ agreement document updated on Wednesday.

The document now lists a total of 55 restricted jurisdictions whose residents are blocked from accessing the platform.

India’s Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology warned virtual private network (VPN) providers in April to stop facilitating access to “illegal and blocked online betting and prediction market platforms.”

The development adds to growing regulatory pressure on prediction markets. In May, Spanish authorities blocked access to Polymarket and Kalshi over local gambling laws, while Indonesia blocked access to Polymarket after the platform listed contracts on whether President Prabowo Subianto would leave office before the end of his term.

Other countries, including Singapore, Poland, Portugal, Hungary, Ukraine and Brazil, have also blocked or prohibited prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.

Kalshi updated the members’ agreement document. Source: Kalshi

Prediction markets face scrutiny over sports and political contracts

Political betting and sports-related event contracts have drawn increased regulatory scrutiny.

In January, US lawmakers proposed legislation aimed at restricting political prediction market trading by government officials after a Polymarket user netted over $400,000 on a contract related to the removal of then-Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, fueling insider trading concerns.

Kentucky was the latest state to sue five prediction market platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing them of “operating unlicensed and illegal sports betting and gambling platforms,” as Cointelegraph reported on Thursday.

Kalshi and Polymarket are two of the largest prediction market platforms, with $3.7 billion and $3.2 billion in weekly trading volume, respectively.

Kalshi and Polymarket, key stats, top categories. Source: Defirate.com

Sports betting was the largest category on both platforms, accounting for $328 million in daily volume for Kalshi and $196 million for Polymarket, according to data from Defirate.

Magazine: Should users be allowed to bet on war and death in prediction markets?