Could OpenAI’s Ambitious $100 Billion ChatGPT Ad Revenue Dream Crumble?

So, OpenAI’s aiming for the stars with a jaw-dropping $100 billion in ad revenue by 2030—but here’s the kicker: Emarketer thinks that number is way off, predicting the entire U.S. chatbot ad market won’t even hit $6 billion by then. Makes you wonder—are we watching the future of advertising unfold, or just a giant case of wishful math? Chatbot ads, despite all the hype, are still barely dipping their toes into the swimming pool of ad dollars. OpenAI’s bold forecast assumes they’ll snag massive chunks of ad budgets and reshape the market like no other format ever… but reality might have other plans. Sometimes, the biggest fish in the pond isn’t as big as it thinks—it’s a long road ahead for ChatGPT ads to really make waves. LEARN MORE.

OpenAI’s ad revenue forecast is on pace to miss its 2030 target by 90%, according to Emarketer.

OpenAI projected $2.5 billion in ad revenue this year and $100 billion by 2030. Emarketer estimates the entire U.S. market for standalone chatbot ads will generate less than $1 billion this year and $5.41 billion by 2030.

OpenAI’s target. OpenAI began testing ChatGPT ads in February. By April, the company projected that ad revenue would grow to $100 billion within five years. But that forecast is larger than Emarketer’s 2030 estimate for the full U.S. chatbot ad market.

What Emarketer measured. Emarketer’s estimate covers standalone chatbots in the U.S., including ChatGPT, Microsoft Copilot, Google AI Mode and Amazon Alexa for Shopping, formerly Rufus. The research firm’s forecast puts the 2030 market ceiling at $5.41 billion, far below OpenAI’s target for its ad business alone.

Why we care. Chatbot ads are still a small market, despite growing interest in AI search and shopping. The gap between OpenAI’s target and Emarketer’s forecast shows ChatGPT Ads have a long way to go.

Assumptions vs. reality? OpenAI’s forecast assumes the company will capture search ad budgets at scale, dominate a mature chatbot ad market, and outperform every ad format in history, Adweek reported. Emarketer’s data points to a much smaller market.

If AI can’t find you, customers won’t either.

Track your visibility across AI search, uncover missed opportunities, and grow your presence where customers are asking questions.

See your AI visibility

Topics on this page

Search Engine Land is owned by Semrush. We remain committed to providing high-quality coverage of marketing topics. Unless otherwise noted, this page’s content was written by either an employee or a paid contractor of Semrush Inc.

About the Author

Danny Goodwin is Editorial Director of Search Engine Land & Search Marketing Expo – SMX. He joined Search Engine Land in 2022 as Senior Editor. In addition to reporting on the latest search marketing news, he manages Search Engine Land’s SME (Subject Matter Expert) program. He also helps program U.S. SMX events.

Goodwin has been editing and writing about the latest developments and trends in search and digital marketing since 2007. He previously was Executive Editor of Search Engine Journal (from 2017 to 2022), managing editor of Momentology (from 2014-2016) and editor of Search Engine Watch (from 2007 to 2014). He has spoken at many major search conferences and virtual events, and has been sourced for his expertise by a wide range of publications and podcasts.