Could Bitcoin’s 50% Winning Streak in the Past 24 Months Signal a Major Market Shift?
Ever wonder if Bitcoin’s monthly mojo is actually trying to drop a hint about what’s coming next? I mean, half the months in the past two years have shown positive returns — that’s not just a coin flip! Economist Timothy Peterson’s take? There’s an 88% chance Bitcoin’s going to be trading higher about ten months from now. Intriguing, right? It’s like Bitcoin’s got its own rhythm, posting gains in scattered months of 2025, but with its price dipping nearly 25% from the year’s high, the market vibe is anything but certain. Traders are tossing their hats on December and November as prime contenders for Bitcoin’s best month heading into 2026 — November historically being quite the champ with over 40% average returns. But here’s the kicker: while some analysts see green ahead, others warn the real bottom might not hit till next October. All the while, market sentiment’s simmering at extreme fear levels, yet some experts say that the quiet buzz on social media actually signals a healthier, more balanced scene. So, is Bitcoin gearing up for a comeback, or just catching its breath before the next tumble? Buckle up — it’s a rollercoaster you won’t want to miss. LEARN MORE.
Half of the months over the past two years have delivered positive returns for Bitcoin, which may be a strong sign that it will be higher than its current price in December, an economist said.
“50% of the past 24 months have been positive. This implies a 88% chance that Bitcoin will be higher 10 months from now,” economist Timothy Peterson said in an X post on Saturday. In 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) posted gains in January, April, May, June, July, and September, while the other six months ended lower, according to CoinGlass.
Peterson explained that he uses the metric to count the number of positive months in any 24-month period to identify possible inflection points.
Ten months from the time of publication lands on Dec. 22. Traders on crypto prediction platform Polymarket are giving December a 17% chance of being Bitcoin’s best month of 2026, just behind November at 18%.
Historically, November has been Bitcoin’s strongest-performing month on average since 2013, with an average return of 41.13%, according to CoinGlass.
Peterson’s forecast comes as Bitcoin’s price trades almost 25% below its level at the beginning of this year, at $68,173 at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap.
Analysts are divided on how the asset will perform in the near future. MN Trading Capital founder Michael van de Poppe said on Friday, “I would expect next week to be green forBTC.” “Finalizing this month with a massive candle and a streak of five red months,” he said.
Meanwhile, other analysts see more downside ahead. Veteran trader Peter Brand recently told Magazine that Bitcoin’s “real bottom will not occur until October 2026.”
Related: Crypto market retraces almost all 2024-2025 US election pump gains
Peterson’s forecast comes as crypto market sentiment continues to decline. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall crypto market sentiment, posted an “Extreme Fear” score of 9 on Sunday, signaling extreme caution among investors.
However, crypto sentiment platform Santiment said on Friday that the “drying up” of Bitcoin price predictions on social media among crypto market participants is a healthy indicator as sentiment returns to “neutral” territory.
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