BTC Mining Difficulty Set to Surge in December—Is a Major Shakeup Looming Amid Plummeting Hashprice?
Just when Bitcoin miners caught a welcome breather on Thursday with the dip in mining difficulty, it looks like the calm might be fleeting. Come December, the mining challenge is poised to crank back up—almost like a tough encore no one asked for—while hashprice stubbornly lingers near historic lows. It’s a classic “holding your breath” moment for miners, caught between breaking even and deciding whether to power down their rigs. Could this be the start of a tough winter for Bitcoin mining, with regulatory headwinds and geopolitical chess games adding to the strain? The question is not if miners will feel the heat, but how hot it’ll get. LEARN MORE.
Bitcoin miners caught a break on Thursday as difficulty dropped, but the relief may be short-lived if it rises in December, as forecast.
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The Bitcoin (BTC) mining difficulty is projected to increase during the next difficulty adjustment scheduled for December 11, as hashprice, a critical metric that measures expected miner profitability per unit of computing power, sits at record lows.
Bitcoin’s next mining difficulty adjustment is expected to occur at block 927,360 at about 12:09:34 AM UTC, marginally increasing the difficulty from 149.30 trillion to 149.80 trillion, according to CoinWarz.
The most recent adjustment, which occurred on Thursday, decreased the difficulty from 152.2 trillion to 149.3 trillion, resulting in an average blocktime of about 9.97 minutes at the time of this writing, slightly below the 10-minute target.
Despite the recent drop in mining difficulty, hashprice is hovering around $38.3 petahashes per second (PH/s) per day, according to Hashrate Index, up from the record low below $35 PH/s reached on November 21.
For context, a hashprice of $40 PH/s is a break-even level for miners and the point where they must consider de-energizing their machines or continuing to operate.
The mining industry continues to face mounting challenges, including regulatory bans or restrictions, rising energy costs, and geopolitical tensions between the United States and China that could disrupt critical equipment supply chains.
Related: Thirteen years after the first halving, Bitcoin mining looks very different in 2025
US probes the largest manufacturer of crypto mining hardware, triggering fears of shortages
The United States Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is investigating mining hardware manufacturer Bitmain, which is based in China, to determine whether its machines can be remotely accessed or used for espionage purposes.
In 2024, US Senator Elizabeth Warren, one of crypto’s most vocal critics, suggested that ASICs could be used for spying on US military bases and sensitive national defense installations.
Bitmain is the leading manufacturer of the application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) used to mine proof-of-work (PoW) cryptocurrencies. The company commands an 80% market share, according to the University of Cambridge.
Restrictions, tariffs, or sanctions imposed on the company by US officials could trigger supply chain issues for the mining industry, which is heavily reliant on Bitmain.
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