Unlocking Wall Street’s Secret: The Bitcoin Indicator Big Shorts Don’t Want You to See

According to analysts, Bitcoin’s relationship with equities has started shifting compared with past market cycles.

Rising short positions across American stocks are starting to shape a different conversation around Bitcoin’s role in global markets.

According to CryptoQuant contributor XWIN Japan, a market increasingly built on hedging, concentrated AI trades, and heavy leverage could push more institutional capital toward BTC if liquidity conditions improve later in the year.

Wall Street Hedging and Bitcoin’s Changing Behavior

XWIN Japan argued in a market update published earlier today that the rise in US equity short interest does not necessarily point to outright bearish sentiment. Instead, hedge funds appear to be stacking defensive positions while keeping long exposure intact.

Per the crypto research institution, hedge fund gross leverage has climbed to around 293%, alongside record S&P 500 short exposure and elevated Days-to-Cover metrics.

Much of that pressure appears tied to heavy concentration in a handful of AI-related megacap stocks, while weaker sectors and smaller companies have been attracting shorter bets.

That backdrop matters for Bitcoin because it has historically traded closely with equities during market panics. For example, during the COVID-19 selloff in 2020, BTC fell alongside stocks rather than acting as a safe haven.

But according to XWIN, that relationship started to shift in 2025. While the S&P 500 has traded in a relatively tight range, BTC has shown larger swings tied to ETF demand, leverage activity, and crypto-native liquidity flows.

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It concluded that going forward, Bitcoin may become a hybrid asset, still exposed to macro liquidity conditions, but more capable of moving on its own terms.

“If future conditions include Fed easing, weaker dollar conditions, and renewed ETF inflows,” XWIN wrote, “Bitcoin could become a secondary liquidity destination rather than simply a correlated tech-like asset.”

The OG crypto asset had fallen over the weekend to around $74,000 but rebounded above $77,000 as reports suggested developments toward a potential ceasefire agreement between the USA and Iran.

But as of the time of writing, data on CoinGecko showed it had dropped back below $77,000 by a few hundred dollars, leaving it down almost 30% over the past year.

On-Chain Activity Cools While Traders Watch Key Levels

Meanwhile, the current consolidation phase has seen Bitcoin’s network activity drop off sharply, with crypto analyst Ali Martinez revealing that active addresses fell nearly 40% in two weeks, from 821,000 to 494,000.

According to him, weaker activity during sideways price action often indicates short-term traders leaving the market, while longer-term holders retain supply.

He added that derivatives traders are increasingly positioned for a breakout, with funding rates recently touching 0.4%, their highest level in more than two months. On-chain data also showed large holders redistributing more than 18,000 BTC during the consolidation period.

Martinez identified resistance around $78,000 and support near $76,000, with a move above resistance, in his opinion, possibly opening the door toward $85,000, while losing support may send Bitcoin toward the mid-$60,000 range.