In the world of trading, chaos often lurks just beneath the surface, ready to shake up market correlations at any moment. This week, traders found themselves whirling through a convoluted tangle of pre-NFP positioning, shifting tariff news, and crucial monetary policy announcements. With U.S. equity indices plunging into the red, and WTI crude oil fluctuating like a game of hot potato ahead of the looming OPEC+ production hike, the atmosphere felt electric—or perhaps a little nerve-wracking! The stakes were high, and the market movements were not just mere whispers; they screamed caution and volatility. So what’s the story behind these tumultuous trading sessions? Buckle up, because we’re about to dive deeper into the key movers and shakers that have influenced the markets recently. Ready to get the inside scoop? LEARN MORE.Market correlations were a mess, as traders juggled pre-NFP positioning with tariffs developments and monetary policy announcements.
U.S. equity indices closed deep in the red while WTI crude oil tossed and turned in anticipation of the OPEC+ production hike next month.
Here’s a breakdown of the biggest moves and movers in the last trading sessions:
Headlines:
- RBNZ head Adrian Orr unexpectedly announced resignation, Deputy Gov. Hawkesby will be the acting governor until March 31
- Australia Building Permits growth for January 2025: 6.3% m/m (0.4% m/m forecast; 0.7% m/m previous)
- Australia Balance of Trade for January 2025: $5.62B ($4.9B forecast; $5.09B previous); exports rate was 1.3% m/m vs. 1.1% m/m previous; imports rate fell to -0.3% m/m vs. 1.1% m/m previous
- Swiss Unemployment Rate for February 2025: 2.9% (3.0% forecast; 3.0% previous)
- U.K. S&P Global Construction PMI for February 2025: 44.6 (49.0 forecast; 48.1 previous)
- Germany HCOB Construction PMI for February 2025: 41.2 (44.0 forecast; 42.5 previous)
- Euro area HCOB Construction PMI for February 2025: 42.7 (46.4 forecast; 45.4 previous)
- Euro area Retail Sales growth for January 2025: -0.3% m/m (0.4% m/m forecast; -0.2% m/m previous)
- ECB cut interest rates by 0.25% as expected, growth forecasts downgraded as Lagarde highlighted weak consumer confidence and trade risks from tariffs uncertainty
- U.S. Balance of Trade for January 2025: Deficit increased by 34% m/m to -$131.4B (-$123.0B forecast; -$98.4B previous); Exports grew by 1.2% m/m; imports grew by 10% m/m
- U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for March 1, 2025: 221.0k (250.0k forecast; 242.0k previous); Continuing Jobless Claims increased to 1,897.0k vs. 1,862.0k previous
- Canada Balance of Trade for January 2025: $3.97B (-$0.1B forecast; $0.71B previous); exports grew by 5.5% m/m; Imports grew by 2.3% m/m
- Canada Ivey PMI for February 2025: 55.3 (49.2 forecast; 47.1 previous)
- FOMC member Patrick Harker highlighted growing risks from threats to dollar reserve status, declining business and consumer confidence
- U.S. President Trump announced a tariffs delay to April 2 for Canada and Mexico products covered by USMCA
- FOMC member Christopher Waller does not see a case for a March cut, despite signs of softer economic growth
Broad Market Price Action:
Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView
A bit of calm with some hints of risk-taking was seen early in the day, as Asian equity indices were in a positive mood on easing U.S. tariffs concerns from the previous session.
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